Complexity, Decision-Making and Cognitive Path Dependency: An Experimental Study

The development of path-dependent processes refers basically to positive feedback in terms of increasing returns as the main driving forces of such processes. It is assumed, however, that path dependency could also be affected by contextual factors such as different degrees of complexity. Up to now it is unclear whether and how complexity impacts path-dependent processes and the probability of lock-in. In this paper we investigate the relationship between complexity and path dependency by means of an experimental study. By focusing on the mode of information load and decision quality in chronological sequences, the study explores the impact of complexity on decision-making processes. The results are helpful for both the development of path-dependency theory and for a better understanding of decision-making behavior under conditions of positive feedback in different settings of complexity. As previous path research has applied qualitative case-study research and (to a minor part) simulations, this paper makes a further contribution by establishing experimental research for path-dependency issues.